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With the Canadian economy showing signs of a slowdown, money markets are pricing in the first interest rate cuts since March 2020 as soon as April, which would bring down mortgage costs. Still, more home buyers took out fixed-rate mortgages in September compared with a year ago, eschewing variable rate mortgages where the interest rate varies based on current market rates. Since then, the central bank has raised the key interest rate to a 22-year high of 5% in July. The share of fixed rate loans among five-year and three-year mortgages rose to 68% in August compared with 32% a year ago. In the first three weeks of November, 79% of mortgage seekers in Canada opted for a fixed mortgage, said Hanif Bayat, CEO of financial data firm Wowa Leads.

Persons: you've, Macklem, Sophie Tremblay, Hanif Bayat, Wowa, Carolyn Rogers, Rogers, Ryan Sims, William Coyle, Nivedita Balu, Denny Thomas, Deepa Babington Organizations: TORONTO, Bank, Bank of Canada, Montreal, NEW, National Bank analysts, BoC, The Mortgage Group Inc, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Canada, Niagara, Huntsville, Toronto

☆ Bank of Canada: era of very low rates is likely over, people and firms must adjust
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada Carolyn Rogers takes part in a news conference, announcing an interest rate decision in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada January 25, 2023. Rogers said she wanted "to stress the importance of adjusting proactively to a future where interest rates may be higher than they've been over the past 15 years". The bank increased rates 10 times between March 2022 and this July to tame inflation that peaked at more than 8% last year. However, economists expect the central bank to start easing interest rates as soon as April and money markets see them coming down around mid-year. (Reporting by Steve Scherer, editing by David Ljunggren)((Reuters Ottawa bureau, david.ljunggren@tr.com))Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Bank of Canada Carolyn Rogers, Blair Gable, Steve Scherer, David Ljunggren OTTAWA, Carolyn Rogers, Advocis, Rogers, they've, David Ljunggren Organizations: Bank of Canada, REUTERS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, Ukraine, Israel, Advocis Vancouver, West Coast, Reuters Ottawa

☆ Bank of Canada voices concerns about variable rate mortgage products -Bloomberg News
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada Carolyn Rogers takes part in a press conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada October 25, 2023. REUTERS/Patrick Doyle/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 3 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada has urged banks to reconsider offering variable rate mortgages with fixed payments, concerned about the number of borrowers faced with negative amortization of their loans. “I think you’ll see the industry reflect on how much they want to offer that product,” she addedMany variable rate mortgages in Canada require borrowers to make regular payments in fixed amounts. You don’t want a big portfolio of negative amortizing mortgages," Rogers said. Money markets see little chance of further tightening by the BoC and have moved to price in a rate cut by June.

Persons: Bank of Canada Carolyn Rogers, Patrick Doyle, ”, Carolyn Rogers, “, Rogers, Fergal Smith, Gursimran Kaur, Chris Reese, Leslie Adler Organizations: Bank of Canada, REUTERS, Bloomberg News, BoC, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, Toronto, Bengaluru

OTTAWA, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Spending by federal and provincial governments in Canada will start feeding into inflation next year if current spending plans are maintained, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said on Wednesday. If governments follow through with spending plans for 2024, it would mean "government spending is starting to get in the way of getting inflation back to target" of 2%, Macklem told members of a Senate committee. If governments spend less, "it would be easier to reduce inflation," Macklem said. The federal government's Fall Economic Statement (FES) could come as early as next week. It looks like there could be more federal spending on the way because Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has said she will unveil measures in the FES to help Canadians tackle housing and affordability.

Persons: Macklem, Chrystia Freeland, Justin Trudeau, Carolyn Rogers, Rogers, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, David Gregorio Our Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, BoC, Thomson Locations: Canada, FES, Ottawa

Variable rate mortgages in Canada typically require borrowers to make regular payments in fixed amounts. WHAT IS THE EXTENT OF MORTGAGE AMORTIZATION EXTENSION? Both banks had no variable-rate mortgages with amortizations greater than 30 years prior to the start of rate hikes. If interest rates stay high over the next few years, as the central bank has warned, it raises questions about customers' ability to service bigger than anticipated debt at higher rates during renewals. The big banks said most customers are able to cope with higher interest rates as they had passed a rigorous stress test to handle higher interest rates.

Persons: Royce Mendes, Carolyn Rogers, OSFI, Nivedita Balu, Fergal Smith, Steve Scherer, Denny Thomas, Conor Humphries Organizations: TORONTO, Statistics Canada, Royal Bank of Canada, CIBC, Bank of Nova, National Bank, Bank of Canada, BoC, Thomson Locations: Canada, United States, Bank of Nova Scotia, amortization, Toronto, Ottawa

☆ Top Bank of Canada officials speak after rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MACKLEM ON POTENTIAL FOR NEGATIVE QUARTERS FOR GROWTH"We're forecasting small positives. When you're forecasting small positives you can't rule out that there's going to be a couple quarters of small negatives. MACKLEM ON NEEDING A PERIOD OF WEAK GROWTH"I would remind you that we actually need a period of weak growth. We're expecting pretty weak growth for the rest of the year, something a little less than 1%." MACKLEM ON NOT FORECASTING A MAJOR CONTRACTION"We're not forecasting a major contraction.

☆ ECB goes big on rates but bank turmoil clouds central banks' outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Overall, 10 big developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,165 basis points (bps) in this cycle to date. Reuters Graphics3) CANADAThe Bank of Canada on March 8 became the first major central bank to halt monetary tightening during this cycle. Reuters Graphics6) NORWAYNorway's central bank meets next week and is expected to raise rates by 25 bps to contain above-target inflation. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the most dovish major global central bank, maintained ultra-low interest rates at its March meeting, the final one for retiring BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The BOJ resisted changing its controversial yield curve control policy, which it uses to cap interest rates on longer-term debt.

☆ Morning Bid: Is China exporting deflation?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Relief wasn't immediate, as the figures were tinged by doubt on the robustness of China's consumption rebound, with inflation in the country also at its slowest in a year. That's likely welcomed since analysts are making their latest upward revisions to U.S. and European interest rate expectations and do not need another inflationary shock from China's reopening. European futures steadied in Asia as markets assumed a holding pattern with the focus on U.S. data as the driver of interest rate movement. The Bank of Japan concludes a two-day meeting on Friday, though it is increasingly dancing to its own beat. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3%; Japanese stocks rose 0.6% on Thursday.

☆ Bank of Canada says it needs more evidence that rates are high enough
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

By Steve Scherer and David LjunggrenOTTAWA, March 9 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada needs more evidence to gauge if interest rates are high enough to tame inflation, in part because the economies of major trading partners are doing better than forecast, senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said on Thursday. She spoke a day after the central bank left its key overnight interest rate on hold at 4.50%, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its tightening campaign as inflation eases. "If evidence accumulates suggesting inflation may not decline in line with our forecast, we're prepared to do more." The economic growth and inflation outlooks for both the United States and Europe are higher than the bank had expected in January. (Additional reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto)((Reuters Ottawa bureau; david.ljunggren@tr.com))Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

OTTAWA, March 8 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada on Wednesday left its key overnight rate on hold at 4.50%, as expected, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its monetary tightening campaign in the face of an anticipated easing of high inflation. In its statement, the BoC reiterated that it was "prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target." The majority of the 32 economists surveyed by Reuters last week said the central bank would likely keep rates on hold through the end of this year, and all of them forecast it would stay on hold on Wednesday. Before the announcement, money markets had expected the policy rate to remain unchanged but were pricing in another tightening by September. The central bank said core inflation measures and short-term inflation expectations still needed to fall in order to return inflation to target.

☆ Bank of Canada seen leaving rates unchanged as growth stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem holds a news conference at the Bank of Canada, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Ottawa, Canada, June 22, 2020. "We expect the Bank of Canada to be the first G10 central bank to hold rates," said Jay Zhao-Murray, a forex analyst at Monex Canada. Money markets expect the policy rate to be left on hold on Wednesday but are pricing in another tightening by September. "Look for the Bank of Canada to point to slowing GDP growth and inflation when justifying its decision to maintain the level of rates," said Royce Mendes and Tiago Figueiredo, Desjardins economists, in a note. "The central bank is unlikely to do much to endorse the view that further rate hikes will be necessary," they said.

☆ BoC to keep up pace with 50 basis point December rate hike -economists
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Fourteen said the BoC would dial down its pace to 25 basis points. Of the large Canadian banks, Scotiabank, CIBC and National Bank expected a 50 basis point move with no further hikes afterward. RBC forecasts a 25 basis point hike and then a pause, while BMO expects 50 and then another 25 in early 2023. The Fed, by contrast, is expected to raise its federal funds rate to a minimum of 4.75%-5.00% early next year, with the risks around forecasts skewed toward a higher rate. "The latest BoC research on household vulnerability and flexible mortgage rates support the idea that the BoC terminal rate will end at least 50 basis points below the U.S. Federal Reserve," said Sebastien Lavoie, economist at Laurentian Bank.

☆ Canada house prices to tumble 17.5% peak to trough, say analysts: Reuters Poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

House prices need to fall 25% from peak to trough in order to make them affordable, according to the median response to an additional question. (Reuters Poll - Canada housing market outlook: )That was in line with BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers who said this week house prices needed to fall to restore balance to the housing market. A majority of property market experts said the risk of a crash in house prices was low. During the financial crisis, U.S. house prices crashed as much as around 40% but the Canadian market fell only 9% then. “In more ‘normal’ times before the pandemic, a 30% drop in house prices would be considered a crash.

☆ Canada house prices to tumble 17.5% peak to trough, say analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | Gabriel Araujo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

House prices need to fall 25% from peak to trough in order to make them affordable, according to the median response to an additional question. Reuters Poll - Canada housing market outlookThat was in line with BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers who said this week house prices needed to fall to restore balance to the housing market. A majority of property market experts said the risk of a crash in house prices was low. During the financial crisis, U.S. house prices crashed as much as around 40% but the Canadian market fell only 9% then. "In more 'normal' times before the pandemic, a 30% drop in house prices would be considered a crash.

The Bank of Canada raised rates by 50 basis points last month to fight high inflation, lifting the policy rate to 3.75%, the highest since the 4% level seen in January 2008. Rogers said the bank was monitoring how a combination of high home prices and high household debt - both longstanding economic vulnerabilities in Canada - could affect the stability of the financial system. After a blowout job gain report for October, Canada's annual inflation rate held steady that same month at 6.9%, matching analyst forecasts, while core inflation measures were mixed, data showed last week. Once fixed-rate mortgages hit the trigger point, lenders can ask them to pay more. Some 50% of those who have variable-rate mortgages, or about 13% of all Canadian mortgages, have already seen their payments reach the trigger point, the paper said.

Reuters GraphicsThe broadening of price increases, increased wage settlements, as well as rising consumer and business inflation expectations are signs that inflation is becoming more entrenched in the economy, economists told Reuters. That is an outcome that the Bank of Canada has hoped to avoid, saying it would require more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation back under control. Economists at Desjardins Group and Oxford Economics also foresee aggressive rate hikes leading to a recession, though they cast it as a mild downturn. We need to cool the economy to get inflation back to target," Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers told reporters earlier this month. As for headline inflation, the central bank has it returning to 2% in 2024.

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